I wrote a post recently on how to measure brand with an over-complicated framework. Elena Verna dropped into the comments and dropped a Gem from Les Binet and now i'm much smarter and my old post feels irrelevant, brilliant!

Let's try again. You can predict your market share with the current share of search (share of organic google search queries) you have.

Share of searches = "searches for brand X" divided by "searches for all brands in category"

There's a high correlation between the two and you can reliably (with a catch) predict market share since the share of search is a leading indicator.

The connection between advertising and the share of searches on google is another connection he visualizes very well.

If you've never heard of SOV (share of voice): It is a measure of the market your brand owns compared to your competitors.

It has an immediate effect to the share of search you will have - and as already explained this will most likely increase your overall share of the market.

The short term effect usually decays within one month when you invest into a 1 month ad burst for 10% SOV. But, there is a measurable long term effect that lingers way beyond that decays very slowly.

Another conclusion of his research is that 40% of organic searches come from short term effects vs. 60% in the case of a sustained advertising on 10% SOV.

Highly recommend it.